SCIENCE

UN report: Climate pollution reductions ‘highly inadequate’

Published

1 year ago

October 28, 2022

The world, especially richer carbon polluting nations, remains “far behind” and is not doing nearly enough — not even promising to do enough — to reach any of the global goals limiting future warming, a United Nations report said.

That “highly inadequate” inaction means the window is closing, but not quite shut yet, on efforts to keep future warming to just a few more tenths of a degree from now, according to Thursday’s Emissions Gap report from the United Nations Environment Programme.

“Global and national climate commitments are falling pitifully short,” United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Thursday. “We are headed for a global catastrophe.”

The world is weaning itself from fossil fuels too slowly, the report and experts said.

“The report confirms the utterly glacial pace of climate action, despite the looming precipice of climate tipping points we’re approaching,” said climate scientist Bill Hare, head of Climate Analytics that also examines what countries are promising and doing about carbon emissions in its own analysis.

Instead of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, the global goals set by 2015 Paris agreement, the way the world is acting now, warming will hit 2.8 degrees (5 degrees Fahrenheit) by the year 2100, the UN report said. Countries concrete pledges would bring that down to 2.6 degrees (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit). It’s already warmed 1.1 degrees (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times.

“In all likelihood we will pass by 1.5,” UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen told The Associated Press in an interview. “We can still do it, but that means 45% emissions reductions” by 2030.

World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said the U.N. weather agency has calculated that there’s a 50% chance that world will likely hit the 1.5 degree mark temporarily in the next five years and “in the next decade we’d be there on a more permanent basis.”

“It’s really about understanding that every little digit (tenth of a degree of warming) that we shave off is a lesser catastrophic outlook,” Andersen said.

“We’re sliding from climate crisis to climate disaster,” Andersen said in a Thursday news conference.

The emissions gap is the difference between the amount of carbon pollution being spewed between now and 2030 and the lower levels needed to keep warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees.

Guterres said “the emissions gap is a by-product of a commitments gap. A promises gap. An action gap.”

Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson, who chairs the independent Global Carbon Project that tracks carbon dioxide emissions around the world but wasn’t part of the UN report, said “another decade of fossil emissions at current rates and we’ll zip past 1.5C…. The way things are going though we’ll zip past 1.5C, past 2C and — heaven help us — even 2.5 or 3C.”

“We’re failing by winning too slowly,” Jackson said in an email. “Renewables are booming and cheaper than ever. But COVID stimulus plans and the war in Ukraine have disrupted global energy markets and led some countries (to) revert to coal and other fuels. This can’t continue in a safe climate.”

In 10 days, yearly international climate negotiations will begin in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, and in the run up to the United Nations conference, several reports highlight different aspects of the world’s battle to curb climate change. Wednesday, a different UN agency looked at countries’ official emission reduction targets. Thursday’s Emissions Gap report looks at what countries are actually doing as well as what they promise to do in the future in various pledges.

The G20 nations, the richest countries, are responsible for 75% of the heat-trapping pollution, Andersen said, adding “clearly the more those G20s lean in, the better we will be.”

The report said “G20 members are far behind in delivering” on their promises to reduce emissions. Taking out the special cases of Turkey and Russia, current polices by G20 nations fall 2.6 billion metric tons a year short of the 2030 goal, the report said. Both Turkey and Russia’s targets for 2030 have higher pollution levels than current policies project and using their projections would make the G20 emissions gap artificially low, the report said.

“It’s critical that China, as well as the U.S. and other G20 countries, actually lead,” Andersen said. She hailed the newly passed $375 billion American climate- and inflation-fighting law as an example of action instead of just promises.

The report said that by 2030 the U.S. law should prevent 1 billion metric tons of carbon emissions, which is much more than other nations efforts made this year.

“What we’re calling for is an accelerated pace because there are good things happening out there in a number of countries, but it’s just not fast enough and it’s not consistent enough,” Andersen said.

Overall to get to the emission cuts needed, the world needs to transform to a low-carbon economy, something that needs global investments of $4 trillion to $6 trillion a year, the report said.

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SCIENCE

Ohio chemical disaster may hold long-term health risks – experts

Published

1 year ago

March 2, 2023

The San Francisco Telegraph

East Palestine residents remain “in constant contact” with toxic pollutants, a US scientist says

The pollutants in the air of East Palestine, Ohio, may pose long-term health risks, scientists from Texas A&M and Carnegie Mellon University claimed on Wednesday. Their assessment contrasts the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) assurance that the pollution does not pose an immediate health risk.

Dr. Albert Presto, an associate research professor at Carnegie Mellon University, told CNN on Wednesday that the situation in East Palestine was not an “immediate health concern” but that it could still pose long-term risks as the researchers had no way of telling how long the hazardous chemical concentration would persist. He added that the residents of the city were in “constant contact” with the pollutants and there was no clear understanding of what that level of exposure would mean for the population’s health.

The air in the Ohio city was contaminated in early February, after 38 cars of a Norfolk Southern freight train derailed and spilled out the hazardous materials they were carrying. The accident caused a fire that went on for multiple days and intensified the airborne spread of the chemical pollution, causing a mandatory evacuation of the nearby residents. The EPA has been conducting various tests and measurements in the affected area, claiming there was no immediate risk to the local population.

Another train derails after Ohio chemical spill

Texas A&M and Carnegie Mellon presented their independent assessment in a Twitter post last week. The scientists claim to have used data compiled by the EPA and found that nine of the 50 chemicals found in East Palestine’s air were above the norm for the region. In particular, the report singles out acrolein, a toxic substance used to control plants, algae, rodents and microorganisms.

The EPA responded to the claims in the report from the two universities by dismissing the perceived risks. A spokesperson for the agency told CNN on Monday that the report assumed “a lifetime of exposure, which is constant exposure over approximately 70 years” for the harmful effects to manifest. They added: “EPA does not anticipate levels of these chemicals will stay high for anywhere near that.”

Dr. Ivan Rusyn, the director of the Texas A&M University Superfund Research Center and part of the team that did the analysis, told CNN on Wednesday that “all sides were right” as both parties simply needed to keep monitoring the situation and “do a better job communicating the results.”

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SCIENCE

Seismologist behind Türkiye quake prediction issues another warning

Published

1 year ago

March 1, 2023

The San Francisco Telegraph

Dutch seismologist Frank Hoogerbeets, who rose to international prominence after predicting the devastating earthquakes in Türkiye and Syria last month, has said that the world could be hit with another major quake in the coming days.

Hoogerbeets, who makes his forecasts based on the motions of celestial bodies, published a video on YouTube on Monday in which he warned that “the first week of March is going to be extremely critical.”

“A convergence of critical planetary geometry around March 2 and 5 may result in large to very large seismic activity, possibly even a mega-thrust earthquake around March 3 and 4 and/or March 6 and 7,” the description to the clip read.

In the video itself, the seismologist claimed that the power of the supposed impending quake “may be well over 8 magnitude.”

The affected area could stretch thousands of kilometers, from the Kamchatka Peninsula and the Kuril Islands in Russia’s Far East, all the way down to the Philippines and Indonesia, Hoogerbeets said.

Costs from Türkiye’s massive quake rising

“I’m not exaggerating. I’m not trying to create fear. This is a warning,” insisted the scientist, who works at the Solar System Geometry Survey (SSGEOS).

The head of the Kamchatka branch of the Geophysical Survey of Russia’s Academy of Sciences, Danila Chebrov, has questioned Hoogerbeets’ predictions and described him as an “amateur.” The connection between the movements of the planets in the solar system and seismic activity on Earth “is rather weak, and it’s problematic to use it as the main prognostic tool,” Chebrov explained.

On February 3, Hoogerbeets issued a tweet that read: “Sooner or later there will be a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in this region (South-Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon).”

Three days later, a 7.8 magnitude quake struck Türkiye and Syria. The disaster has caused the deaths of more than 50,000 people, with powerful aftershocks continuing in the region to this day.

Dutch seismologist Hoogerbeets has made predictions down the years which didn’t come true. Commenting on his work earlier this month, Susan Hough of the US Geological Survey insisted that no scientist has “ever predicted a major earthquake.” Hough told NPR that the spot-on forecast for the quakes in Türkiye and Syria was just a coincidence. “It’s the stopped clock that’s right twice a day, basically,” she said.

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Turkish quakes may be ‘rehearsal’ for big one in Istanbul – scientists

Published

1 year ago

February 17, 2023

The San Francisco Telegraph

A local newspaper cites experts warning of a potential catastrophe if an earthquake hits the country’s biggest city

Istanbul should prepare itself for a powerful quake, scientists and public figures have warned. This month’s disaster in southern Turkey, which claimed tens of thousands of lives, is a “rehearsal” for what could come next, they argued in the newspaper Hurriyet on Friday.

When the next Istanbul earthquake happens, the damage “will swallow everyone,” unless people drop their differences and work on improving the seismic resilience of the city, Turkish author Nedim Sener wrote.

He cited a risk assessment by Bogazici University’s quake research lab, which counted how many buildings would be impacted by an earthquake of 7.5+ magnitude in Türkiye’s most populous and economically vital hub. With almost 13,500 structures expected to be heavily damaged, and hundreds of thousands of others affected to a smaller degree, the loss of life would be greater than what the country has just experienced, Sener predicted.

Some Turkish officials, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, have voiced similar concerns. The head of the city administration said 90,000 structures were at risk of total collapse in case of a major earthquake, citing a fresh survey by his municipality.

Cost of Türkiye quake damage estimated

Speaking in a TV interview this week, Imamoglu criticized the central government for issuing an amnesty to some 317,000 buildings which failed to meet earthquake resilience codes. It meant that the owners were allowed to pay a fine rather than demolish their properties.

Istanbul is located near a tectonic fault line that passes under the Marmara Sea. The 1999 quake in Izmit, which killed over 17,000 people, struck some 80 kilometers east of the city center, and half that distance from its easternmost suburbs.

Turkish Seismologist Naci Gorur, from Istanbul Technical University, warned that the risk of a major quake hitting Istanbul in the near future was growing. The probability of a tremor measuring over 7 magnitude occurring near the city within 30 years has increased from 62% in the aftermath of the 1999 disaster to 80% now, he said during a TV appearance. The scientists cited calculations by Tom Parsons, a fellow researcher at the US Geological Survey.

The twin quakes on February 6 caused massive devastation in Türkiye and northern Syria. Their combined death toll is estimated at around 44,000, including over 38,000 on the Turkish side.

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